Interested by this? Share it on social media. Join our monthly e-newsletter to keep up to date with our latest research and events. And check out our Friends Programme to find out how you can help our work.

If the polls are to be believed (admittedly on past form a dangerous thing to do), then the result of the referendum will be close. For a referendum this is really the worst case scenario, for instead of putting it to the people and settling the issue instead it is likely to prompt bitter recrimination and challenge. A large proportion of the population are about to be very disappointed.

In politics many are wondering how the Conservative party can put itself back together again after a fratricidal conflict that has been often billed as a battle between personalities. Both sides have been accused of betrayal and treachery, scaremongering and lies. Both sides have had a point about the other’s conduct. The Labour party is superficially less split, with only relatively few MPs breaking ranks. Yet this is deceptive, the Labour campaign has come late to the party and with an undercurrent of unease over many aspects of European integration – be that a perceived connection between austerity and market fundamentalism with EU policy, or an approach to immigration in which the party leadership seems often to be at odds with its natural voters.

In fact the divides go much deeper even than that. Over the past month I’ve been to, and spoken at, many referendum events and one observation that became clearer and clearer is that this isn’t really one debate at all. There aren’t two sides, there are dozens. The issues that matter in one part of the country and segment of society are radically at odds with that in another. In Northern Ireland the issues of the future of the border and the threat of a return to sectarian violence loom large, though they are rarely discussed in debates in England. Elsewhere, immigration and fears over an undermining of Britishness (or Englishness?) compete with economic fears. Democracy and accountability seem a particular London preoccupation, and environmental issues a Southern one. Fisheries matter to the coast (as is to be expected), but not inland.

In May the refugee crisis seemed to provoke considerable debate, but in the past couple of weeks it seems to have passed almost without mention. Scaremongering has been a feature throughout, and on both sides, as has been an awful lot of hysterical name-calling. All of which has led to strange alliances and battles. There is no agreement on the Brexit side about what it would look like – whether we remain in the market, close the borders, get out of the convention on human rights, start a new more isolationist foreign policy, or do the opposite on all of those issues seems to be up for grabs. There may be a Brexit vote, but no consensus as to what the government is meant to do next in its negotiations. Expect at least some Brexiters to feel betrayed and let down in what follows, even if they win.

These existential questions are no easier on the Remain side. Most Remainers seem to want some sort of reform of the EU, but again, there is no consensus as to what. Some want to reduce regulation and make this a more business friendly trade bloc, while others on the left seem to want the exact opposite and a strengthening of the social market and labour rights.

Whatever the result it is a mistake to think this will be a true victory of the majority – because there simply isn’t one. A referendum that was supposed to provide clarity and unity has instead exacerbated and confirmed a far more divided Britain. Young versus old, urban versus rural, populist versus technocratic, England and Wales versus Scotland and Northern Ireland, and many other stark dividing lines have emerged. In the wake of this vote even the winning side will be hopelessly divided, and the losing side will no doubt feel disappointed, even betrayed. Our own smaller union – the UK, is at real risk of tearing itself apart. Scotland and Northern Ireland are expected to vote Remain while Wales and England may well vote Leave, raising the spectre of further referenda to come and questions over how united and solid our own British identity is.

This is the great issue of the coming years – how will the government, and its successors, possibly repair and reconcile the country as a whole? One thing above all seems clear to me, this referendum has been a failure. Instead of settling any issues, it has deepened divisions and the toxic tone of the debate as a whole will only have made it harder to repair the damage. This has been an ugly campaign on both sides, on Friday the real hard work will have to begin – not on Europe, but on defining and building the future of a United Kingdom that looks shakier and more divided than it has looked in a very long time.

Ben Ryan is a researcher at Theos | @BenedictWRyan

Image by Rock Cohen from flickr available under this Creative Commons Licence