Received wisdom over recent years has seen the Iraq war as having irreparably damaged relations between the Labour government and British Muslims.

The way in which Tony Bair worked so closely with George Bush’s Republican administration, coupled with his government’s relentless focus on security, which many feel has helped create an atmosphere of Islamophobia, is supposed to have alienated many British Muslims. By way of response, Labour’s attempt to pass legislation outlawing religious hate speech was seen by some commentators as merely a desperate sop offered to their disenchanted Muslim supporters.

The received wisdom, then, seems sound. Yet according to a new Theos/ComRes poll, if there were a General Election tomorrow, 35% of voting Muslims (meaning those Muslims who claim they are more likely than not to vote) would vote Labour. This compares with 22% of voting Christians and 23% of the entire voting population. By comparison, whereas 30% of the voting population would tick the Conservative box, only 13% of voting Muslims would do so.

These findings are supported by other data. 5% of those who call themselves Muslim say that they “generally” consider themselves as Conservative compared with 42% who consider themselves Labour (the national figures are 23% Conservative and 28% Labour). Similarly, 49% of Muslims feel that the Labour party has been most friendly towards the Muslim faith over recent years, compared with 6% who think that the Conservatives have been.

The Labour-Muslim relation is not without its problems. Nearly a fifth of Muslims think Labour has been least friendly towards the Muslim faith over recent years. However, given that such criticism is the occupational hazard of being in power, and that more Muslims (nearly a quarter) think the Conservatives have been the least friendly party (despite the fact they haven’t really been in a position to do anything) Labour could justifiably consider that level of criticism as quite a result.

If, then, Labour does appear to be the natural home for British Muslims, it is instructive to ask why, and that is a far tougher question.

There are several attenuating facts. The Conservative party supported the Iraq war as energetically as did the Labour government, and has hardly been less resolute on issues of security. The Conservatives have also been more critical of the government’s immigration policy and since Muslims appear to be very much less bothered about immigration as a political issue than anyone else, that may have alienated them further from the main opposition party.

Valuable as these observations are, they explain only the apparent on-going Muslim alienation from the Conservatives, rather than any affection for the existing government. Muslims alienated by Conservative policy and rhetoric might just as easily gravitate to the Liberal Democrats as vote for a Labour administration with which they have become disaffected. The fact that the data show that the Lib Dems do no better among the Muslim population than the Conservatives suggest there is something else going on.

The British Muslim association with Labour party is made still more perplexing by the fact that, according to the Theos/ComRes study, 53% of Muslims agree that “religious freedoms have been restricted in Britain over the past 10 years”, as compared with 33% of Christians and 32% of the general population.

Perhaps the reasons are not religious but demographic, geographic and socio-economic. British Muslims are disproportionately younger and more urban. They come from lower income households and experience higher levels of unemployment. All these factors would incline them towards voting Labour.

If this were so, it would mean that none of the main parties should bother thinking of the Muslim vote as a Muslim vote, but rather see it simply as a part of other, larger socio-economic voting patterns. Whereas that might make psephologic sense, it’s a conclusion that sits uneasily alongside all we know (or think we know?) about the rise of identity politics.

Alternatively, the reasons may simply be historical. Labour rhetoric over the last quarter century has been more positive when it comes to issues like immigration, integration and multiculturalism, in a way that continues to appeal to Muslim voters.

If this were so, it should be a cause of concern rather than comfort among Labour party strategists. The Muslim vote is not (yet) large enough to decide elections, except in a limited number of constituencies. It is far from insignificant, however, and if its connection with the Labour party is based on little more than historic associations and received wisdom, it may yet find another home.

Nick Spencer is Director of Studies at Theos.