The economic situation in UK the and across the globe (with one or two notable exceptions) remains fragile. Growth in Christmas retail sales is expected to slow this year, with total UK sales predicted to rise by 1.3% (£862 million), compared with 1.9% (£1.3bn) between 2008 and 2009.

New research published by Theos also suggests that people will be tightening their belts and spending less in the lead up to Christmas. 82% of all those polled in a Theos survey by ComRes expect to spend the same or less on Christmas presents than last year, compared with 14% who expect to spend more. Strikingly, 38% of people aged 18-24 are set to spend more, the highest percentage by far across all age groups.

If retail spending does slow, what effect will that have on people’s enjoyment of Christmas? Very little it appears. 62% of people believe spending less will make 'no difference' to their Christmas because it 'is about more than presents'. Only 15% of people believe Christmas will be worse, while 18% think spending less will make it better as they can concentrate on 'the things that matter'.

But what are the ‘things that matter’ for people in Britain today? One answer is family. 68% of those polled expect to spend Christmas with their families, compared with 7% who will spend it with friends. Despite increasing mobility and social breakdown (or perhaps because of it), family bonds remain very significant for people. It should, however, give us pause for thought that 11% of people aged 65 or over will spend Christmas alone, compared with just 6% of the population as a whole.

So, is the importance of Christmas limited to it being a family time? What about its religious significance? Strikingly, society is evenly divided here between those who agree with the statement that ‘The birth of Jesus is irrelevant to my Christmas’ (46%) and those who disagree (51%). The poll highlights clear differences between the sexes, nations and ages. 47% of men disagree with the statement whereas 56% of women disagree. Scottish people are more likely to disagree with the statement (65%), compared with a GB average of 51%.

The biggest surprise, perhaps, is that young people (aged 18-24) are more likely than any other age group to acknowledge the significance of Jesus to their celebration of Christmas (55%). Interestingly, however, they are less likely to attend a Christmas service. 33% are set to attend one, compared with 35% of 45-54s and 44% of over 65s. This finding arguably confirms the widespread picture that younger Britons are ‘believing’ without ‘belonging’.

What conclusions, then, can be drawn from the research?

Firstly, the economic situation will clearly affect the level of people’s Christmas spending, but, for a majority, it won’t make any difference to their enjoyment of the holiday. The reason for this is that, for most people, the meaning of Christmas is deeper than material consumption, and that’s a rather hopeful finding.

Secondly, the fact that a significant majority of people will be spending Christmas with their family, and the fact that there’s an even split regarding the religious significance of Christmas, indicates that the themes of ‘family’ and ‘faith’ are central resources of meaning for over half the population. Society might not be as ambivalent towards religion as often assumed, but the fact that only one in three people (36%) plan to attend a Christmas church service suggests that people’s belief is of a personal and individualistic nature. And that, finally, has wider significance when we consider the vulnerable in society.   The stark differences between Christmas for the rich and poor in society should trouble us. The Theos poll reveals that people in the lowest socio-economic group (DE) are more likely to dread Christmas (22% compared with a national average of 18%), borrow money, if necessary, for Christmas (15% compared with 13%), believe Christmas to be over-rated (61% compared with 54%) and spend Christmas alone (11% compared with 6%). In this season of goodwill, we should strive not to forget the poor and those living alone.

Paul Woolley is Director of Theos.